About
Healthy Returns is a forecasting platform that captures the collective judgment of clinicians, researchers, founders, and investors on which healthcare innovations will matter — clinically, commercially, and financially.
Our mission
Clinicians on the front line, researchers running the trials, founders building the companies, and investors backing them hold invaluable collective knowledge about which innovations will succeed. That knowledge is rarely aggregated, rarely quantified, and rarely shared.
Healthy Returns exists to change that. By structuring that judgment into clear forecasting questions — and scoring the answers against real-world outcomes — we create a verifiable signal of domain expertise that benefits the whole community.
Not financial advice
Forecasts on Healthy Returns are expressions of expert judgment, not investment recommendations. Nothing on this platform constitutes financial, medical, or investment advice.
Not gambling
There is no real money involved at any point. Healthy Returns is a reputation and intelligence platform. Your track record is your credential.
Methodology
Prediction Markets
Each question is structured around a clearly defined future outcome with an explicit resolution criterion. Participants submit a probability estimate (0–100%) representing their belief that the outcome will occur by the stated date.
The community signal is the aggregate of all submissions — updated in real time as more participants contribute. Markets resolve to Yes or No based on publicly observable evidence, and each participant's accuracy is scored.
Expert Delphi
Some questions use a structured expert elicitation approach inspired by the Delphi method used in clinical guideline development. Participants provide assessments across multiple dimensions — probability, adoption likelihood, market outlook — rather than a single probability.
These questions are designed for complex, multi-factor scenarios where a single number cannot capture the full picture. The aggregate view is presented as a structured summary across all dimensions.
Scoring
Brier-based scoring
We use a variant of the Brier scoring rule — the standard method for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in meteorology, medicine, and intelligence analysis.
Inverted and scaled
Scores are inverted and scaled to 0–100 so that higher is always better. A score of 100 is a perfect forecast. A score of 50 is equivalent to random guessing.
Compounds over time
Your leaderboard score is your average accuracy across all resolved questions you have participated in. The more questions you answer, the more meaningful your score becomes.
FAQ
Is this gambling?
No. There is no real money involved at any point. Healthy Returns is a forecasting and reputation platform — your track record is your credential, not a financial return.
Who can participate?
Anyone can create a free account and submit forecasts. Clinicians can request verification so that their clinical credentials are acknowledged on the leaderboard and community signal.
Can I change my forecast after submitting?
Yes — you can update your forecast at any time before the question closes. Your most recent submission is the one that counts for scoring.
How are questions resolved?
The Healthy Returns team monitors public sources — trial registries, regulatory announcements, peer-reviewed publications, and company disclosures — and resolves questions when the stated resolution criterion is clearly met.
How is my accuracy score calculated?
We use a variant of the Brier scoring rule, inverted and scaled to 0–100. A score of 100 means your probability estimate was perfectly calibrated to the actual outcome. A score of 50 is equivalent to random guessing. Scores only accrue once a question resolves.
Is my forecasting history private?
Your full forecasting history is always visible to you. Your leaderboard display name is optional — you can appear as 'Anonymous clinician' if you prefer not to be identified publicly.
What are Prediction Markets?
Each prediction market is structured around a clearly defined future outcome. Participants submit probability estimates (0–100%) and the community signal is the aggregate view. Markets resolve to Yes or No based on publicly observable evidence.
What is the Expert Delphi?
Some questions use a structured expert elicitation approach where participants provide assessments across multiple dimensions — similar to the Delphi method used in clinical guideline development. These questions capture nuanced expert opinion rather than a single probability.
Sponsors & Partners
Healthy Returns is supported by organisations and individuals who believe that better clinical intelligence leads to better capital allocation — and better patient outcomes.
Sponsor and partner details coming soon
Interested in sponsoring or partnering with Healthy Returns? Get in touch
Join clinicians and healthcare investors already forecasting the future of medicine.